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AJ Barner

AJ Barner Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Arizona Cardinals vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
AJ Barner Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+485/-660).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +495 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +485.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks offense to be the 10th-quickest paced team in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 27.80 seconds per snap.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.
  • The Cardinals defense has been something of pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 9th-most passes in the NFL (33.9 per game) since the start of last season.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Seahawks offensive blueprint to skew 7.0% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.
  • At the moment, the 3rd-most run-heavy offense in the NFL near the end zone (49.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Seattle Seahawks.
  • The Seattle offensive line grades out as the 4th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
  • Since the start of last season, the tough Arizona Cardinals defense has allowed a paltry 0.10 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing tight ends: the best rate in the NFL.
  • As it relates to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Arizona's DE corps has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the 6th-worst in the NFL. in the NFL.

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