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AJ Barner

AJ Barner Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals

 
 
 
AJ Barner Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+275/-310).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +275 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +275.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to see 131.4 total plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may suffer.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 39.2 pass attempts per game against the Cardinals defense this year: 5th-most in football.
  • The Arizona Cardinals defensive tackles grade out as the 5th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 6.5-point advantage, the Seahawks are favored this week, implying more of an emphasis on running than their usual game plan.
  • The leading projections forecast the Seahawks to be the 2nd-most run-heavy team in the NFL near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 50.5% red zone run rate.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have called the 3rd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a mere 51.4 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 9th-lowest clip in the NFL versus the Arizona Cardinals defense this year (68.4% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the strong Cardinals defense has conceded a puny 0.38 passing TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 9th-smallest rate in football.

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