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AJ Barner

AJ Barner Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

Seattle Seahawks vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers

 
 
 
AJ Barner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+175/-240).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -200 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -240.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • In terms of a defense's influence on tempo, the Seattle Seahawks defense has allowed opposing squads to play 8th-quickest in the league (in a neutral context) this year at 27.87 seconds per play.
  • Since the start of last season, the porous Buccaneers pass defense has given up a colossal 80.1% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing TEs: the 4th-highest rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Seahawks are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.
  • Given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Seahawks to pass on 53.5% of their downs: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
  • When it comes to safeties in covering receivers, Tampa Bay's group of safeties has been great this year, ranking as the 5th-best in the NFL.

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