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AJ Barner

AJ Barner Receptions
Player Prop Week 2

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Seattle Seahawks

 
 
 
AJ Barner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+143/-182).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -182.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Seahawks are a 3.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
  • Still weather conditions (like the 4-mph wind being forecasted in this game) typically correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers linebackers profile as the worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Seahawks offensive approach to lean 7.5% more towards the rushing attack than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak now calling the plays.
  • Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seahawks to pass on 56.3% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate on the slate this week.
  • Given their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Seahawks are projected by the projections to call only 62.5 total plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The Seattle Seahawks have run the 5th-fewest plays in the NFL since the start of last season, totaling just 55.7 plays per game.
  • The Seahawks offensive line profiles as the 4th-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.

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