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AJ Barner

AJ Barner Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Seattle Seahawks vs Indianapolis Colts

 
 
 
AJ Barner Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+125/-156).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -141 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Colts defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.
  • As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Indianapolis's unit has been awful this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 13-point advantage, the Seahawks are a massive favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their usual approach.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.1 plays on offense called: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.
  • The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.

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