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AJ Barner Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (-110/-118).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 29.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -118.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Colts defense has been something of pass funnel this year, enticing opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (39.2 per game) this year.This year, the deficient Indianapolis Colts defense has given up a massive 68.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing TEs: the 2nd-most in football.The Colts pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency vs. tight ends this year, conceding 8.35 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 5th-most in the NFL.As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Indianapolis's unit has been awful this year, grading out as the 2nd-worst in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 13-point advantage, the Seahawks are a massive favorite in this game, implying much more of an emphasis on running than their usual approach.Our trusted projections expect the Seattle Seahawks to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 50.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 126.1 plays on offense called: the 3rd-lowest number among all games this week.The Seahawks have called the 4th-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a mere 53.1 plays per game.
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