Aidan O'Connell TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Aidan O'Connell

NFL · Player Props

Aidan O'Connell

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

TD Passes

Las Vegas Raiders vs New York Giants · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 12:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Aidan O'Connell TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+210/-280).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -270 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -280.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
The Raiders offensive line grades out as the best in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
The New York Giants cornerbacks project as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

Right now, the 6th-least pass-heavy team in football (58.2% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the Las Vegas Raiders.
Accounting for their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are projected by the projections to run only 60.4 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in football have been run by the Las Vegas Raiders this year (only 52.9 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.2 pass attempts per game against the Giants defense this year: 6th-fewest in the league.
This year, the daunting Giants defense has given up a paltry 67.0% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 8th-smallest rate in the NFL.

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