Aidan O'Connell Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Aidan O'Connell

NFL · Player Props

Aidan O'Connell

QB · Las Vegas Raiders

Rushing Yards

Las Vegas Raiders vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 26, 2023 8:46 PM UTC

Analysis

Aidan O'Connell Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+110/-143).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 5.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -143.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 2nd-most run-centric offense in football (44.3% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Las Vegas Raiders.
When it comes to executing run-blocking assignments (and the influence it has on all run game statistics), the offensive line of the Raiders ranks as the 3rd-best in the NFL last year.
This year, the formidable Chiefs run defense has surrendered a paltry 4.52 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 25th-smallest rate in the league.
The Kansas City Chiefs safeties rank as the 31st-worst safety corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

Favors Under

The Raiders are a giant 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Raiders are forecasted by the predictive model to run just 63.4 plays on offense in this game: the 6th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Raiders have run the 4th-fewest plays in the league this year, totaling just 53.7 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

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