Adam Trautman Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Adam Trautman

TE · Denver Broncos

Receptions

Denver Broncos vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 18, 2024 1:06 AM EST

Analysis

Adam Trautman Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+182/-245).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to run the 4th-most total plays among all teams this week with 67.0 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being called for in this game) typically correlate with better passing effectiveness, increased TD potential, increased pass volume, and lower run volume.
The Atlanta Falcons defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the NFL (36.9 per game) this year.
When it comes to protecting the passer (and the strong impact it has on all passing game stats), the offensive line of the Denver Broncos profiles as the 3rd-best in the NFL this year.
Adam Trautman's 70.5% Adjusted Completion% this year signifies an impressive progression in his pass-catching prowess over last year's 65.1% mark.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Denver Broncos to pass on 55.2% of their plays: the 9th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Adam Trautman's 7.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 17.9.
With a feeble 1.1 adjusted catches per game (14th percentile) this year, Adam Trautman stands as one of the weakest TE receiving threats in the NFL.
The Falcons pass defense has conceded the 7th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (73%) vs. TEs this year (73.0%).
The Falcons linebackers profile as the 9th-best collection of LBs in the league this year in covering receivers.