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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Adam Thielen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1700/-2800).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -2000 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2800.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (64.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Vikings.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • With a middling 2.7% Red Zone Target% (25th percentile) this year, Adam Thielen places as one of the wide receivers with the biggest workloads near the end zone in football.
  • Adam Thielen has put up significantly fewer air yards this year (19.0 per game) than he did last year (71.0 per game).
  • Adam Thielen's 13.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 49.9.
  • Adam Thielen's 48.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year's 80.0% rate.

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