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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Adam Thielen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+920/-2900).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1350 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -2900.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 61.1% red zone pass rate.

Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.

Adam Thielen has accounted for a whopping 24.8% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile when it comes to WRs.

Adam Thielen comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a terrific 75.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 91st percentile among wideouts.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.

The receiving TD line reads "0" on Adam Thielen's box scores this year.

Since the start of last season, the strong Steelers defense has allowed a meager 0.85 TDs through the air per game to opposing wideouts: the 3rd-lowest rate in football.

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