My Account Log Out
 
 
Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 19

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Houston Texans

 
 
 
Adam Thielen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+950/-1000).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +1200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +950.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.
  • When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
  • The Texans safeties profile as the 3rd-best safety corps in football this year in regard to run defense.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.
  • With a lousy 3.6% Red Zone Target% (25th percentile) this year, Adam Thielen stands among the wideouts with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.
  • After averaging 71.0 air yards per game last season, Adam Thielen has produced significantly fewer this season, now pacing 18.0 per game.
  • Adam Thielen's 15.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 49.9.
  • Adam Thielen's 60.2% Adjusted Catch% this season represents an impressive decline in his pass-catching proficiency over last season's 80.0% mark.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™