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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Adam Thielen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+510/-680).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -710 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -680.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line indicates a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 61.5% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower run volume.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
  • While Adam Thielen has earned 3.9% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a more important option in Pittsburgh's offense near the goal line in this week's contest at 10.1%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
  • Adam Thielen has accrued significantly fewer air yards this year (15.0 per game) than he did last year (71.0 per game).
  • Adam Thielen's 13.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 49.9.
  • Adam Thielen's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 80.0% to 62.6%.
  • Adam Thielen grades out in the 1st percentile among wideouts when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging just 0.00 per game.

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