My Account Log Out
 
 
Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

Detroit Lions vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Adam Thielen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+560/-950).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +850 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +560.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • An extreme passing game script is implied by the Steelers being a heavy -7.5-point underdog this week.
  • Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Steelers to pass on 65.3% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.9 plays, given the traits of each team and game dynamics.
  • The passing games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (as in zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.
  • The Steelers O-line grades out as the 6th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all passing game statistics across the board.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 51.3 plays per game.
  • Adam Thielen has notched far fewer air yards this season (12.0 per game) than he did last season (71.0 per game).
  • Adam Thielen's 10.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 49.9.
  • Adam Thielen's receiving reliability have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate falling off from 80.0% to 54.4%.
  • Adam Thielen ranks in the 1st percentile among wide receivers as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging a mere 0.00 per game.

  •  
     
     
     
     
    © 2025 EV Analytics   |   Data by WriteNow™