Adam Thielen Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Touchdowns

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins · Week 15, 2025

Updated Dec 16, 2025 12:37 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+870/-1750).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -1400 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1750.

Key Factors

Favors Over

As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL against the Dolphins defense this year (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).
This year, the stout Dolphins run defense has conceded a meager 0.77 rushing TDs per game to the opposing side: the 10th-smallest rate in the league.
The Miami Dolphins linebackers profile as the 6th-best LB corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 58.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 50.8 plays per game.
Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, averaging the fewest attempts in football (a measly 31.5 per game) this year.

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