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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-175/+124).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Adam Thielen's 5.7% Target Rate this season shows a material diminishment in his passing attack workload over last season's 20.8% figure.
  • Adam Thielen's receiving skills have diminished this year, averaging a measly 0.8 adjusted catches compared to 4.9 last year.
  • Adam Thielen's 48.9% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a material reduction in his pass-catching skills over last year's 80.0% rate.
  • The Los Angeles Chargers pass defense has yielded the 6th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (60.4%) to WRs this year (60.4%).

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