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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+110/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +110 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.

Adam Thielen checks in as one of the top WRs in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a fantastic 4.2 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Adam Thielen ranks as one of the most sure-handed receivers in football, hauling in an exceptional 77.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, checking in at the 93rd percentile among wide receivers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.

With a 58.8% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league has been the Minnesota Vikings.

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 29.13 seconds per play.

The predictive model expects Adam Thielen to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack in this game (13.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.6% in games he has played).

The Bengals pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.7%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (63.7%).

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