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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Adam Thielen Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+114/-138).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -105 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -138.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's line indicates a running game script for the Steelers, who are favored by 3 points.
  • Based on their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Steelers to pass on 61.5% of their chances: the 4th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being projected in this game) typically mean increased passing effectiveness, higher TD potential, higher air attack volume, and lower run volume.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.
  • Our trusted projections expect Adam Thielen to be a much bigger part of his offense's passing offense in this week's contest (11.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (6.0% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The 5th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been run by the Steelers this year (a measly 52.9 per game on average).
  • Adam Thielen's receiving performance has declined this year, compiling a measly 1.2 adjusted receptions vs 4.9 last year.
  • Adam Thielen's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 80.0% to 62.6%.
  • The Baltimore Ravens safeties project as the best safety corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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