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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-116/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 14.5 @ -111 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be forced to utilize backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Minnesota Vikings offense to be the 7th-fastest paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.63 seconds per snap.
  • Adam Thielen has accounted for a whopping 24.8% of his offense's air yards since the start of last season: 80th percentile when it comes to WRs.
  • Adam Thielen comes in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL, hauling in a terrific 75.6% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) since the start of last season, grading out in the 91st percentile among wideouts.
  • Adam Thielen has been one of the most efficient pass-catchers in the league, averaging a remarkable 10.09 adjusted yards-per-target since the start of last season while checking in at the 95th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 56.1% of their plays: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
  • The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the NFL since the start of last season, which should result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing attack results when facing windier conditions in this game.
  • Adam Thielen's 6.0 adjusted receiving yards per game this season conveys a remarkable decrease in his receiving talent over last season's 65.0 rate.

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