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Adam Thielen

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 3

Minnesota Vikings vs Cincinnati Bengals

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Vikings will be forced to start backup quarterback Carson Wentz in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.

The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may suffer.

Opposing teams have averaged 34.5 pass attempts per game vs. the Bengals defense since the start of last season: 7th-most in football.

As it relates to air yards, Adam Thielen ranks in the lofty 77th percentile among wide receivers since the start of last season, accruing an impressive 65.0 per game.

Adam Thielen comes in as one of the best pass-catching wide receivers since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 56.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 80th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

A rushing game script is implied by the Vikings being a 3-point favorite in this week's game.

With a 58.8% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 7th-least pass-oriented offense in the league has been the Minnesota Vikings.

The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to be the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, causing opposing offenses to average 29.13 seconds per play.

The predictive model expects Adam Thielen to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack in this game (13.7% projected Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (19.6% in games he has played).

The Bengals pass defense has allowed the 10th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (63.7%) vs. WRs since the start of last season (63.7%).

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