Adam Thielen Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving Yards

Detroit Lions vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 11, 2022 6:26 PM EST

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 47.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Minnesota Vikings will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Kevin O'Connell, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.8% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 65.5% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 3rd-most plays run on the slate this week at 134.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 38.5 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 3rd-most in the league.

Favors Under

Adam Thielen has been much more involved in his team's offense this year, playing on 92.0% of snaps compared to just 77.5% last year.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 8th-worst in football this year in pass protection, which has a negative effect on all passing attack stats across the board.
Adam Thielen's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 69.7%.
Adam Thielen's receiving effectiveness has declined this season, averaging a mere 7.86 yards-per-target vs a 9.35 rate last season.
Adam Thielen's ability to generate extra yardage has diminished this year, accumulating just 1.93 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 3.88 mark last year.

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