Adam Thielen Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Adam Thielen

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Washington Commanders vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 7, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+197/-294).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +197.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 131.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Adam Thielen to be much more involved in his offense's passing game near the goal line this week (22.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (16.3% in games he has played).
Adam Thielen has totaled a colossal 73.0 air yards per game this year: 84th percentile among wideouts.
Adam Thielen's 54.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks among the best in the NFL: 83rd percentile for wide receivers.
The Washington Commanders defense has yielded the 6th-most TDs through the air in football to wide receivers: 1.00 per game this year.

Favors Under

The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards a rushing game script.
Opposing QBs have averaged 32.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Washington Commanders defense this year: 6th-least in the league.
The Minnesota Vikings O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.
Adam Thielen's possession skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 77.8% to 72.7%.
The Washington Commanders safeties rank as the 3rd-best unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

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