Adam Thielen Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 2

NFL · Player Props

Adam Thielen

WR · Minnesota Vikings

Receiving TD

Philadelphia Eagles vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 2, 2022

Updated Sep 20, 2022 3:00 AM UTC

Analysis

Adam Thielen Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+174/-252).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +201 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +174.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Vikings are a 3-point underdog in this game, likely creating a passing game script.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Adam Thielen has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 25.0% since the start of last season, which places him in the 95th percentile among WRs.
Adam Thielen has accrued a whopping 66.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 77th percentile among wideouts.
Adam Thielen's 51.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 83rd percentile for WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.1 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Minnesota Vikings have played in the 4th-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense results when facing windier conditions in this week's contest.
The Minnesota Vikings offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense has conceded the 6th-least TDs through the air in the league to WRs: 0.78 per game since the start of last season.
The Philadelphia Eagles cornerbacks grade out as the best collection of CBs in football since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.