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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Green Bay Packers

 
 
 
Aaron Rodgers Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+2800/-3300).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +3000 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +2800.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.4% of their opportunities: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
  • The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while rush volume may slide.
  • Opposing QBs have averaged 42.5 pass attempts per game versus the Green Bay Packers defense this year: most in the league.
  • Aaron Rodgers is not a mobile quarterback and has accounted for a mere 0.0% of his offense's run game usage near the goal line this year, placing him in the 2nd percentile among QBs.
  • Aaron Rodgers's throwing precision has gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 63.8% to 68.6%.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 49.0% rate of running the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 10th-most run-focused offense in the NFL in this setting has been the Steelers.
  • The predictive model expects this game to have the 3rd-fewest plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in football this year, averaging a mere 49.3 plays per game.

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