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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-156/+120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -127 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -156.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Steelers to call the 9th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
  • The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being forecasted in this game, while run volume may drop-off.
  • Aaron Rodgers's 68.7% Adjusted Completion% this season signifies a noteworthy gain in his throwing precision over last season's 63.8% rate.
  • Aaron Rodgers has been among the leading touchdown passers in football this year, averaging an impressive 1.67 per game while checking in at the 85th percentile.
  • This year, the porous Bengals defense has given up a massive 2.17 TDs through the air per game to opposing teams: the 5th-worst rate in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Steelers are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
  • The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 8th-least pass-centric team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 53.7% red zone pass rate.
  • The Steelers have called the fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a measly 49.6 plays per game.
  • The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 8th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

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