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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+111/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +107 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +111.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Aaron Rodgers has attempted 35.2 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile among QBs.

With a terrific ratio of 1.74 per game (88th percentile), Aaron Rodgers rates as one of the top TD passers in the league since the start of last season.

The Patriots defense has allowed the 10th-most passing touchdowns in the NFL: 1.58 per game since the start of last season.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's collection of LBs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 42.9% rate of throwing the ball near the end zone (context-neutralized) this year, the 6th-least pass-centric offense in the league in these cases has been the Steelers.

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.10 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.

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