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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 15

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Miami Dolphins

 
 
 
Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-124/-103).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -124.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • As it relates to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all pass attack statistics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
  • With an impressive ratio of 1.54 per game (75th percentile), Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the top touchdown throwers in the league this year.
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the highest rate in the NFL against the Dolphins defense this year (74.4% Adjusted Completion%).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • With a 3-point advantage, the Steelers are favored in this game, indicating more of a reliance on rushing than their normal approach.
  • The predictive model expects the Steelers to be the 2nd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 58.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 125.8 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
  • The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, totaling just 50.8 plays per game.
  • The predictive model expects Aaron Rodgers to throw 34.6 passes in this week's contest, on average: the 5th-fewest out of all QBs.

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