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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 13

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Buffalo Bills

 
 
 
Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+102/-128).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ +102.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
  • To the extent of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.96 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the present time.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line ranks as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
  • With an exceptional rate of 1.73 per game (92nd percentile), Aaron Rodgers stands among the best TD throwers in the league this year.
  • As it relates to cornerbacks in defending receivers, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume.
  • Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to pass too much against the Bills, averaging the 3rd-fewest attempts in football (a mere 29.3 per game) this year.
  • Opposing teams have completed passes at the 6th-lowest rate in the NFL versus the Buffalo Bills defense this year (66.7% Adjusted Completion%).
  • This year, the daunting Buffalo Bills defense has surrendered a paltry 1.09 touchdowns through the air per game to opposing teams: the 6th-best rate in the league.

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