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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 10

Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers

 
 
 
Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-107/-119).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -107.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Steelers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 61.4% of their opportunities: the 4th-highest frequency among all teams this week.
  • Calm weather conditions (like the 1-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically lead to better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased pass volume, and lower ground volume.
  • The model projects Aaron Rodgers to attempt 35.8 passes in this week's game, on average: the 7th-most among all quarterbacks.
  • When talking about protecting the quarterback (and the positive effect it has on all pass attack metrics), the offensive line of the Steelers ranks as the 8th-best in the league this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Steelers to run the 5th-fewest total plays among all teams this week with 63.2 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.
  • The Pittsburgh Steelers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging just 50.8 plays per game.
  • Opposing offenses teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Chargers, averaging the 10th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 31.1 per game) this year.
  • This year, the imposing Los Angeles Chargers defense has yielded a mere 65.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing offenses: the 4th-best rate in the league.
  • The Chargers defense has allowed the 2nd-fewest passing touchdowns in the NFL: 0.89 per game this year.

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