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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes
Player Prop Week 5

Minnesota Vikings vs New York Jets

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (+142/-188).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ -168 before it was bet down to 1.5 @ -188.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Jets to pass on 61.1% of their plays: the 4th-greatest rate on the slate this week.

Right now, the most pass-centric team in the league in the red zone (60.5% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the New York Jets.

Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Jets are forecasted by the projection model to call 65.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.

This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

In this game, Aaron Rodgers is forecasted by our trusted projection set to average the 3rd-most pass attempts out of all QBs with 37.0.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Jets are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, which points towards a rushing game script.

As it relates to linebackers in covering pass-catchers, Minnesota's collection of LBs has been terrific this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.

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