Aaron Rodgers TD Passes - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

TD Passes

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers TD Passes Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +126 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Aaron Rodgers has been among the leading touchdown passers in the NFL since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 1.53 per game while ranking in the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New York Jets offensive line profiles as the worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a negative impact on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 5th-least passing TDs in the league: 1.18 per game since the start of last season.
The Buffalo Bills linebackers profile as the best LB corps in the league since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.

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