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Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+144/-182).
The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +154 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +144.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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To the extent of a defense's influence on tempo, at 27.96 seconds per play, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 10th-fastest in football (adjusted for context) at the present time.Windy weather conditions (like the 14-mph being predicted in this game) usually prompt decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume.This year, the daunting Bills run defense has conceded a puny 5.40 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing rushing attacks: the 31st-smallest rate in football.As it relates to the linebackers' role in run defense, Buffalo's unit has been easily exploitable this year, ranking as the 2nd-worst in football. in football.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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At a -3-point disadvantage, the Steelers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of an emphasis on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.The model projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 9th-least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 41.1% run rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.In this game, Aaron Rodgers is expected by the predictive model to total the fewest rush attempts among all quarterbacks with 1.6. Making up just 3.3% of his offense's run game usage this year (13th percentile when it comes to quarterbacks), Aaron Rodgers's one-dimensionality makes him no threat in Pittsburgh's rushing attack.Aaron Rodgers has generated a measly 3.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the lowest figures in the NFL when it comes to QBs (8th percentile).
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