Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · Green Bay Packers

Rushing Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-119/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -119.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Packers are an enormous 7.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Green Bay Packers to be the 8th-most run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 42.4% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to be much more involved in his team's rushing attack this week (7.2% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (1.6% in games he has played).
The Green Bay Packers O-line profiles as the 2nd-best in the NFL this year in run blocking.
The New York Jets safeties project as the 27th-worst safety corps in football this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Aaron Rodgers to garner 2.0 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average: the 3rd-least of all QBs.
Aaron Rodgers has run for significantly fewer yards per game (2.0) this season than he did last season (7.0).
The New York Jets defense has produced the 7th-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, yielding just 4.26 yards-per-carry.
The New York Jets have stacked the box against opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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