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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 208.5 (+120/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 209.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 208.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.3% of their plays: the 8th-highest frequency among all teams this week.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may suffer.

The Vikings defense has been a bit of pass funnel since the start of last season, causing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (34.8 per game) since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) right now, causing opposing offenses to average 29.28 seconds per snap.

Aaron Rodgers has passed for many fewer adjusted yards per game (143.0) this year than he did last year (237.0).

Opposing quarterbacks have completed passes at the 8th-lowest clip in the NFL vs. the Minnesota Vikings defense since the start of last season (69.1% Adjusted Completion%).

The Vikings pass defense has exhibited good efficiency since the start of last season, allowing 7.36 adjusted yards-per-target: the 7th-fewest in the NFL.

The Vikings safeties profile as the 4th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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