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Aaron Rodgers

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards
Player Prop Week 3

New England Patriots vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 230.5 (-113/+104).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 224.5 @ -120 before it was bet up to 230.5 @ -113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Aaron Rodgers has attempted 35.2 passes per game since the start of last season, ranking in the 81st percentile among QBs.

The New England Patriots pass defense has exhibited bad efficiency since the start of last season, conceding 8.11 adjusted yards-per-target: the 9th-most in the league.

As it relates to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's collection of LBs has been atrocious since the start of last season, profiling as the 2nd-worst in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

In terms of a defense's impact on tempo, at 29.10 seconds per snap, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 4th-most sluggish in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time.

The New England Patriots defense has been quite strong when opposing pass-catchers have gotten into space, conceding an average of 4.21 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the 5th-fewest in the NFL.

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