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Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 204.5 (-100/-130).
The money has been on the Under as it opened 207.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 204.5 @ -130.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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The Steelers are a 3-point underdog this week, which points towards a passing game script.Accounting for their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Pittsburgh Steelers to pass on 60.7% of their plays: the highest frequency among all teams this week.Given the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is forecasted by the projections to see 133.5 offensive plays run: the most on the slate this week.Our trusted projections expect Aaron Rodgers to attempt 37.5 passes in this contest, on balance: the most among all quarterbacks.When talking about pass protection (and the positive effect it has on all passing attack metrics), the O-line of the Steelers ranks as the 3rd-best in the league this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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The Steelers have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a measly 53.9 plays per game.Aaron Rodgers's 189.0 adjusted passing yards per game this year shows a remarkable regression in his throwing talent over last year's 237.0 rate.This year, the formidable Houston Texans defense has conceded a measly 64.3% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the best rate in the league.The Houston Texans pass defense has shown good efficiency this year, yielding 6.71 adjusted yards-per-target: the 2nd-fewest in the NFL.As it relates to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Houston's collection of CBs has been phenomenal this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the league.
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