Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 8, 2024

Updated Oct 27, 2024 4:31 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 232.5 (-145/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 235.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 232.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 3rd-most pass-oriented team in the NFL (64.6% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the New York Jets.
In averaging a massive 37.6 pass attempts per game this year, Aaron Rodgers slots in among the top quarterbacks in the league (94th percentile) in this regard.
The Jets offensive line profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a positive effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Aaron Rodgers comes in as one of the top passers in the league this year, averaging an outstanding 253.0 adjusted yards per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
When it comes to linebackers in pass coverage, New England's unit has been very bad this year, ranking as the worst in the NFL.

Favors Under

A running game script is implied by the Jets being a 3-point favorite in this game.
The predictive model expects the Jets to run the 2nd-fewest offensive plays on the slate this week with 62.0 plays, accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics.
Aaron Rodgers rates as one of the least accurate QBs in the league this year with a 62.9% Adjusted Completion%, checking in at the 16th percentile.
This year, the tough Patriots defense has given up the 3rd-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing squads: a feeble 4.1 YAC.

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