Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Passing Yards

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 6, 2024

Updated Oct 15, 2024 12:21 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Passing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 217.5 (-135/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 225.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 217.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bills defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, causing opposing teams to attempt the 7th-most passes in football (36.8 per game) this year.
The Jets offensive line profiles as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all passing attack statistics across the board.
Aaron Rodgers checks in as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year, averaging an exceptional 294.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 100th percentile.

Favors Under

The projections expect the New York Jets as the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 63.0% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying traits of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to see just 123.6 total plays run: the fewest on the slate this week.
The fewest plays in the league have been called by the Jets this year (a lowly 46.2 per game on average).
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
In this contest, Aaron Rodgers is predicted by our trusted projection set to average the 6th-most pass attempts among all quarterbacks with 36.7.

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