Aaron Rodgers Pass Attempts - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Aaron Rodgers

NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Pass Attempts

New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills · Week 1, 2023

Updated Sep 11, 2023 11:11 PM UTC

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Pass Attempts Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-121/-108).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -109 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -121.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New York Jets boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 2.2% more towards passing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
THE BLITZ projects the New York Jets to be the 7th-most pass-centric offense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.8% pass rate.
The New York Jets have played in the 2nd-most "bad weather" (rain, snow, or 15+ mph wind) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to lead to higher pass volume, lower running volume, and improved offense performance when facing better conditions in this week's contest.
The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Jets to run the least plays on offense on the slate this week with 63.1 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

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