Aaron Rodgers Completions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Rodgers

QB · New York Jets

Completions

New York Jets vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 11, 2024

Updated Nov 17, 2024 8:06 PM EST

Analysis

Aaron Rodgers Completions Prop is currently Over/Under 23.5 (-106/-129).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 23.5 @ -103 before it was bet up to 23.5 @ -106.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Jets to be the 7th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 59.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is expected by our trusted projection set to have 130.0 total plays run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.
The leading projections forecast Aaron Rodgers to attempt 36.2 passes in this week's game, on average: the 4th-most out of all QBs.
When it comes to pass-blocking (and the strong effect it has on all pass game stats), the offensive line of the New York Jets profiles as the 7th-best in the NFL this year.
This year, the deficient Indianapolis Colts defense has been torched for a staggering 76.4% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the worst rate in the league.

Favors Under

This week's spread suggests a rushing game script for the Jets, who are favored by 4.5 points.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the New York Jets this year (just 56.2 per game on average).
With a subpar 63.8% Adjusted Completion% (21st percentile) this year, Aaron Rodgers ranks as one of the least on-target quarterbacks in football.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Indianapolis's CB corps has been terrific this year, ranking as the 6th-best in football.