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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+295/-345).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +400 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +295.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
  • The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 6th-most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.2% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
  • At the present time, the most pass-centric team in the league near the end zone (64.4% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Vikings.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • Our trusted projections expect Aaron Jones to be a much smaller piece of his team's passing game near the goal line in this contest (11.3% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (18.3% in games he has played).
  • Opposing offenses have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in the NFL against the Chargers defense this year (65.8% Adjusted Completion%).
  • The Chargers defense has conceded the fewest receiving touchdowns in the NFL to running backs: 0.00 per game this year.

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