Aaron Jones Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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NFL · Player Props

Aaron Jones

RB · Minnesota Vikings

Touchdowns

Minnesota Vikings vs Detroit Lions · Week 17, 2025

Updated Dec 26, 2025 12:42 AM EST

Analysis

Aaron Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+146/-164).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +168 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +146.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -6-point underdogs.
Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.2% of their downs: the 2nd-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
Right now, the 3rd-most pass-heavy offense in the NFL in the red zone (63.8% in a neutral context) according to our trusted projection set is the Vikings.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
Aaron Jones's 18.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the best in the NFL: 94th percentile for running backs.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by the predictive model to run just 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 8th-fewest among all teams this week.
The smallest volume of plays in football have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a lowly 51.2 per game on average).
The model projects Aaron Jones to be a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack near the goal line in this contest (62.4% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (28.1% in games he has played).
Aaron Jones's 75.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year marks an impressive decrease in his pass-catching ability over last year's 89.0% mark.
Opposing teams have completed passes at the 5th-lowest clip in football vs. the Lions defense this year (66.2% Adjusted Completion%).