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Aaron Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+190/-210).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +184 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +190.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (63.8% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Minnesota Vikings.

With a remarkable 8.6% Red Zone Target% (76th percentile) this year, Aaron Jones has been among the pass-game running backs with the highest volume near the end zone in the NFL.

Aaron Jones's 19.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive volume) grades out among the league leaders: 94th percentile for RBs.

The New York Giants defense has allowed the 3rd-most receiving touchdowns in the league to RBs: 0.29 per game this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 54.4% of their plays: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.

The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.

The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.

Aaron Jones's 73.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this season shows a material diminishment in his receiving prowess over last season's 88.9% mark.

Opposing offenses have run for the 4th-most TDs in the NFL (1.29 per game) against the Giants defense this year.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

Aaron Jones TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

Aaron Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 16