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Aaron Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Aaron Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+140/-178).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +152 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The predictive model expects the Vikings to be the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in football near the goal line (in a neutral context) right now with a 64.6% red zone pass rate.

The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may decline.

Aaron Jones's 21.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the best in the NFL: 96th percentile for running backs.

With a fantastic ratio of 0.11 per game through the air (76th percentile), Aaron Jones places as one of the best receiving TD-scorers in football when it comes to running backs this year.

This year, the weak Commanders defense has yielded a colossal 74.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 6th-worst rate in the NFL.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run only 63.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-lowest number among all teams this week.

The Vikings have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 51.4 plays per game.

The leading projections forecast Aaron Jones to be a more important option in his offense's running game near the goal line in this game (33.6% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (23.5% in games he has played).

Aaron Jones's 71.1% Adjusted Completion Rate this year reflects a substantial regression in his receiving prowess over last year's 88.8% figure.

More Aaron Jones Player Props

Aaron Jones TouchdownsPlayer Prop Week 14

Minnesota Vikings vs Washington Commanders

Aaron Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 14