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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 13

Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+205/-255).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +200 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +205.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -11.5-point disadvantage, the Vikings are enormous underdogs in this week's contest, implying much more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.
  • The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.5% pass rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric offense in the NFL in the red zone (64.4% adjusted for context) according to the projection model is the Vikings.
  • The air attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (2-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
  • The Seahawks defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, inciting opposing QBs to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (40.4 per game) this year.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Vikings are expected by the projection model to run just 63.3 offensive plays in this contest: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
  • The 3rd-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Vikings this year (only 52.1 per game on average).
  • While Aaron Jones has garnered 18.8% of his team's red zone rush attempts in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be much more involved in Minnesota's running game near the goal line in this week's game at 35.2%.
  • Aaron Jones's ball-catching skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate shrinking from 88.9% to 66.5%.
  • The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has conceded the 4th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (76%) versus running backs this year (76.0%).

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