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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 11

Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+127/-142).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +127.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.5% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
  • The predictive model expects the Minnesota Vikings to be the most pass-heavy offense in the league near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 64.8% red zone pass rate.
  • Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see 131.8 offensive plays called: the 4th-highest number out of all the games this week.
  • This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • The projections expect Aaron Jones to be much more involved in his offense's pass game near the end zone in this game (12.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (5.6% in games he has played).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The 9th-fewest plays in the league have been called by the Minnesota Vikings this year (a measly 53.4 per game on average).
  • The projections expect Aaron Jones to be a more integral piece of his team's running game near the goal line in this week's contest (36.8% projected Red Zone Carry Share) than he has been this year (16.7% in games he has played).
  • Aaron Jones's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 88.8% to 66.0%.

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