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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Touchdowns
Player Prop Week 10

Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+186/-192).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -160 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -192.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • This week's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Vikings, who are -4-point underdogs.
  • Accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Vikings to pass on 61.9% of their plays: the 2nd-greatest frequency on the slate this week.
  • The leading projections forecast the Vikings to be the most pass-focused team in the league near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 64.1% red zone pass rate.
  • This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
  • Opposing offenses have averaged 40.1 pass attempts per game against the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in the league.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Vikings to be the 3rd-slowest paced defense in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.50 seconds per play.
  • Opposing squads have run for the 5th-most touchdowns in the NFL (1.25 per game) versus the Ravens defense this year.
  • The Ravens safeties rank as the 5th-best safety corps in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

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