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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 8

Los Angeles Chargers vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 21.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 21.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 21.5 @ -120.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • With an exceptional rate of 62.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (90th percentile), Aaron Jones stands as one of the leading RBs in football since the start of last season.
  • This year, the stout Los Angeles Chargers run defense has surrendered a feeble 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's ground game: the 27th-best rate in the NFL.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The Vikings will be rolling out backup QB Carson Wentz in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
  • A passing game script is implied by the Vikings being a -3-point underdog in this week's game.
  • Our trusted projections expect the Vikings to be the 6th-least run-oriented team on the slate this week with a 38.8% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are expected by the model to run just 63.1 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-lowest number on the slate this week.
  • The weatherman calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and lower ground volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

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