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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 2

Minnesota Vikings vs Atlanta Falcons

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 38.5 (-170/+130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 38.5 @ -170.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a 3.5-point advantage, the Vikings are favored in this week's game, indicating more of an emphasis on running than their normal game plan.

With a 49.0% rate of rushing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 4th-most run-centric team in the NFL has been the Vikings.

Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Minnesota Vikings are anticipated by our trusted projection set to call 65.1 total plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.

Aaron Jones has grinded out 68.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among RBs (90th percentile).

With a terrific record of 4.64 adjusted yards per carry (78th percentile), Aaron Jones rates as one of the best running backs in the NFL since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The 9th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Minnesota Vikings since the start of last season (a measly 56.0 per game on average).

The pass attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may slide.

The predictive model expects Aaron Jones to be much less involved in his team's rushing attack in this week's game (34.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (57.8% in games he has played).

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