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Aaron Jones

Aaron Jones Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

New York Giants vs Minnesota Vikings

 
 
 
Aaron Jones Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 53.5 (+100/-108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 53.5 @ -119 before it was bet down to 53.5 @ -108.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings as the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 45.6% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • The weatherman calls for 14-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means lower pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
  • This week, Aaron Jones is forecasted by the model to secure a spot in the 78th percentile when it comes to running backs with 13.3 rush attempts.
  • This year, the formidable New York Giants run defense has yielded a feeble 5.80 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposition's rushing attack: the 32nd-smallest rate in the NFL.
  • When it comes to the safeties' role in run defense, New York's group of safeties has been very bad this year, projecting as the worst in football. in football.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The projections expect the Minnesota Vikings to be the 4th-slowest paced defense in the NFL (in a neutral context) right now, with opposing offenses averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.
  • Aaron Jones has been a much smaller piece of his team's rushing attack this season (44.9% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (59.6%).
  • Aaron Jones's 32.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this season signifies a remarkable reduction in his running talent over last season's 71.0 mark.

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